Prospective research

Prospective simulated-forward research with a Binance Futures testnet execution canary

Regime Relay freezes the highest historical archive score in each 60-minute regime and follows that frozen map forward. The chart below is the simulated forward book. Testnet fills on the shared research account are an execution canary, reported separately, and are not isolated account equity.

State: retired
Mode: shadow
Maturity: REGISTERED
Version: v5

Registered 2026-10-28T01:18:22 · hash d5b2f66054648b397d01146d0771cb9446365324f358f1602bc8ad451ff1d2ca · stale no

Current regime grid

BTC
label unavailable
Frozen map unavailable
fail closed
ETH
label unavailable
Frozen map unavailable
fail closed
SOL
label unavailable
Frozen map unavailable
fail closed

Simulated forward NAV

Simulated forward Relay book versus its frozen always-on control. Sample so far: 0 days, 0 closes, 0 qualified regimes. The scheduled read is fixed at day 365 (descriptive). Shadow alerts are collecting strategy events now; profit remains withheld until activation. The testnet canary (cumulative closed-trade PnL) is not drawn here.

Simulated forward · Relay bookempty until the epoch is active · refresh 60s

Loading testnet ROI…

Net ROI % = (gross PnL − fees) / starting simulated equity = — − — / — = —

trades: —
win_rate: —
profit_factor: —
max_drawdown: —
venue_verified: —
legend: gross · fees · drawdown · SMA24 · W/L marks

Frozen 60-minute playbook

One historically highest archive score per regime, or FLAT when no candidate passed the frozen gates. The same map is used for BTC, ETH, and SOL. Reserves stay in the sanitized manifest and are not promoted inside this version. A later native Hyperliquid epoch stays testnet-only until a separate preregistered gate, and a flat map is a valid result.

BULL_STRONG
FLAT
no alert
BULL_WEAK
FLAT
no alert
BEAR_STRONG
FLAT
no alert
BEAR_WEAK
FLAT
no alert
SIDEWAYS_QUIET
FLAT
no alert
SIDEWAYS_CHOP
FLAT
no alert

Control, comparators, and canary

The Relay book, the frozen always-on control, and the secondary comparators use the same costs. Alert certainty is unarmed. Canary closes 0. Pre-activation profit is withheld.

Canary
testnet canary
pnl withheld
Costs and exposure
fees 0 · funding 0
gross 0 · net 0

Comparator series are unpublished before activation.

Transitions and outages

Shadow decisions 0. Gate denials 0. Safety pauses 0. Outages 0.

No regime transitions are recorded.

Version history

v1 retired · 432b3dea0dc4 · 2026-10-19T16:45:31
v2 operational_fail · b60dfb82eab2 · 2026-10-20T01:05:41
v3 operational_fail · 361df7f87734 · 2026-10-22T17:01:07
v4 operational_fail · 8c7e64d34159 · 2026-10-25T17:36:47
v5 retired · d5b2f6605464 · 2026-10-28T01:18:22
boundary v1 retired
boundary v2 operational_fail
boundary v3 operational_fail
boundary v4 operational_fail
boundary v5 retired

Verify the sanitized status JSON · Verify playbook v5

Related adverse evidence

Earlier records tested different policies and stay on the site. Tournament strategies often lose after the 14-basis-point round trip, including a script that went from about +6% gross to about −98% net over thousands of trades. A retired universal-certification attempt found no single regime pack with positive Sortino and positive ROI on the pooled panel. Those results are context, not this protocol.

Fees and slippage · Testnet fee drag · Changelog

Follow the experiment

TensorTrader sells subscriptions. This button is a commercial link. It does not change the protocol, the analysis, or a losing period.

Beta access

Not financial advice. This page is a preregistered research record. Past archive scores do not predict future returns. The testnet canary is a separate operational record.